NCAAF 2011 Week 1

Welcome to my opinionated guide to the top college football games to watch each week! I'll be selecting five must-see games per week and telling you exactly why you should tune in, with a little prediction afterwards.  If you're as big into college football as I am, then you know how difficult it can be to figure out which games to settle on after your favorite team has finished up.  ESPN, CSS, FSN, etc preview so many high-profile games that finding the right one can be an annoying experience of constantly shuffling through dozens of channels.  So that's where my guide will come into play, to help you decide which games to watch each week.

After a painfully long off-season, week 1 is now upon us.  I don't think it would be a stretch to say that this has been the most controversial off-season college football has seen in decades, possibly in its history.  Auburn and its former QB Cam Newton got things started before their championship game was even played, a controversy that stretched past the end of the season and was followed up the Ohio State tattoo scandal, and more recently the shocking investigation and abhorrently detailed reports of Miami and booster Nevin Shapiro.  But fortunately, those of us not affiliated with the NCAA can get back to watching our beloved sport.  Week 1, as always, is mostly loaded with major programs getting the season started against small, cupcake opponents to get new starters experience while opening the season on a winning note.  Luckily though, there are a few games that will drastically alter the course of the entire season and the national title hunt, along with some games holding great historical significance.   That stated, let's take a look at my top five games for week 1.

TCU @ Baylor (9/2 at 8:00 pm ET, on ESPN/ESPN3)

 Two Texas rivals will take the field at 8:00 pm on Saturday in the first truly interesting game of the season.  The TCU Horned Frogs lead their longtime rivals 50-49-7 after dismantling the Bears of Baylor at home by a score of 45-10.  Baylor will be looking for payback as they welcome TCU to Floyd Casey Stadium, but despite losing much of their defense and star QB Andy Dalton to graduation, TCU won't go down without a fight.  Gary Patterson has turned TCU into arguably the best mid-major program in the country (though their mid-major status will be gone next season when they leave for the Big East), and he'll be working hard with DC Dick Bumpas to ensure that this game stays well within reach.  With MWC defensive player of the year Tank Carder returning along with Patterson's always-hard-nosed defenses, expect them to hold Baylor down regardless of athletic QB Robert Griffin.  If TCU can keep Griffin from scrambling out of the pocket at will while keeping speedy WR Kendall Wright in check, it could be a long day for the Bears, especially if RBs Terrance Ganaway and Glasco Martin can't keep the TCU defense honest.  But there's definitely a lot of athleticism throughout the Baylor O, so their speed against the power of TCU's D along makes this game worth watching.

On the other side of the ball, the game gets less interesting.  TCU runs a spread offense similar to the old West-Coast style, but it's far less aggressive than what most people think of when they hear the word "spread."  They do, however, utilize a very effective running game and aren't afraid to hit it between the tackles, and with a green QB taking the snaps, we might see a lot of that today.  Baylor on the other hand, has had more than its share of defensive woes, giving up 30 or more points seven times last season (and letting opponents pass the half-century mark twice).  RB Ed Wesley returns for TCU, and will have to make some hard runs to keep the pressure off new QB Casey Pachall.  If he's unable to, we might have a disappointing pillow-fight on our hands, and the advantage will move to the high-flying Bears offense.

Prediction: The Horned Frogs are too well-coached and hard-nosed, TCU by 6.

South Florida @ Notre Dame (9/3 at 3:30 pm ET, on NBC)

 It's been a while, but a Holtz has finally returned to Notre Dame.  The thing is, he's coaching the other team.  And so it is in his second season as head coach of the USF Bulls that Skip Holtz, son of long-time ('86-'96) Notre Dame coach Lou Holtz and former positional coach under his father, returns to South Bend.  He opposes Brian Kelly, who is also in his second year as head coach, both men 8-5 last season with their new teams.  Kelly has already begun to turn things around in South Bend, with marked improvements across the board and a monstrous recruiting class last season.  They're going to be hoping their young talent matures quickly, as USF's QB BJ Daniels has been known to torch shaky defenses.  Containing Daniels, mostly on the shoulders of LB Manti Te'o, will be key to the game: if they can make him a non-factor, the Bulls won't have enough offensive threats to put a dent in the Irish's talented D.  If they allow him to take over, this game will get very interesting.

Notre Dame's offense will be led by QB Dayne Crist, a player many experts believe will be a future high-round draft pick.  In his second year as coach, there's no doubt that Brian Kelly will be ready to open up his playbook and unleash his QB, who will be looking for three primary playmakers: Michael Floyd, TJ Jones, and Theo Riddick.  If they can open up the field, look out for RBs Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray.  USF has a strong front seven anchored by Cory Grissom, but the Notre Dame athletes might be too explosive to keep in check.

Prediction: The Fighting Irish have too many playmakers for the Bulls to handle, ND by 17.

Oregon vs LSU (9/3 at 8:00 pm ET, on ABC) - Game of the Week

This has been the most hyped (and controversial) games of the off-season for a reason.  Les Miles and his LSU Tigers are expected to be heavily improved from their 11-2 season last year, with many starters returning.  DC John Chavis may very well have saved Les Miles' job with his outstanding defensive coaching, and Oregon's high-powered offense might be about to run into a bigger brick wall than the one they hit last year against Auburn. 

Oregon QB Darron Thomas was not suspended for the matchup despite being in the car with CB Cliff Harris (who is suspended) who was pulled over for driving 118 and under the influence of marijuana (the officer believed both players were).  After recruiting allegations, Oregon also lost highly-touted RB Lache Seastrunk to transfer.  LSU is not without their own problems, with starting QB Jordan Jefferson, among others, suspended for the game after a brawl outside a bar.  But as I've already so much as stated, it won't be LSU's offense that will win this game.  Their defense is almost without flaw, and will get physical with Oregon's speedy playmakers from the get-go.  If the Duck's Heisman candidate, ridiculously agile RB LaMichael James, is unable to have a big game and open up Darron Thomas's air attack, then Oregon is in some trouble.  But that's easier said than done, as James averaged just over 144 yards per game last season with 24 TDs.  The clash between Oregon's O and LSU's D might very well be the best we will see during the entire regular season, so make sure not to miss out on this one.

Prediction: Despite the loss of several LSU players, I believe their defense slowly wears Oregon out: LSU by 2.

Georgia vs Boise State (9/3 at 8:00 pm ET, on ESPN/ESPN3)

I will usually try to avoid adding two games that will be played at the same time, but this was unavoidable.  No doubt that UGA/Boise is the second best game of the week.  UGA is trying to bounce back from an abysmal 6-7 season that saw another disappointing loss to Florida be followed up by an embarrassing bowl loss to C-USA champion Central Florida.  This season will likely determine the future of under-fire HC Mark Richt.  His work is cut out for him from week 1 though, as Boise State returns much from a 12-1 season, including star QB Kellen Moore.  Boise coach Chris Petersen has turned this small program into one of the most surprising teams of the last five years, constantly playing, and often beating, the "big boys."  However, that was not the case when they visited Athens in 2005, where UGA came up big with a 48-13 win en route to the 2005 SEC title. 

The thing to watch out for here is the huge size difference between the teams.  It's no secret that UGA recruits among the elite of the country while Boise scrapes by with 1*-3* recruits.  And Bulldog NTs Kwame Geathers and John Jenkins outweigh the Broncos' C Thomas Byrd by around 60 pounds.  That's pretty much the case across the entire OL and DL as well, with UGA players typically outweighing their opponents by perhaps 20 pounds on average.  BSU also lost star WRs Titus Young and Austin Pettis (and have had some suspensions), so it will be up to Kellen Moore and RB Doug Martin to find a way through UGA's mammoth players.  But if DC Todd Grantham has the UGA defense clicking as much as some fans think, then that might be too much for BSU to overcome.  On the other side of the ball, Boise's front seven is superb, but if UGA QB Aaron Murray can find the gaps in their weak secondary, that might be all it takes for uber-hyped freshman RB Isaiah Crowell to show why he was the consensus #1 HS RB in the nation last year.

Prediction: Virginia Tech doesn't recruit like UGA, so BSU's win over them last year might be misleading.  I believe this talent gap is too much to overcome: UGA by 4.

SMU @ Texas A&M (9/4 at 7:30 pm ET, on FSN)

 A&M wants out of the Big 12.  SMU wants in.  They certainly wish to be considered among the elite in Texas again.  So now's the time to prove it, in front of a huge crowd in College Station.  June Jones is already working his magic with the SMU Mustangs the way he did in Hawaii with his alma mater, getting them to two straight bowl games.  While I admit there are some other matchups that maybe deserve to be here more, both teams run fast-paced, exciting offenses, and if it turns into a shoot-out, then you won't want to miss it.  Ryan Tannehill takes over as the A&M starting QB, and has many weapons to work with in an A&M offense many think could take them to the top of the Big 12.  SMU QB Kyle Padron, however, has much more experience and threw for 31 TDs last season.  Second-year A&M DC Tim DeRuyter, who has been doing a fine job turning around the Aggie defense, will have better athletes at his disposal, and if he can shut down Padron's WRs, SMU will have a difficult time adjusting.  No matter how you look at it, A&M should handily take this game against its smaller in-state rival.  But with the potential of a high-speed shoot-out, at the very least keep an eye on this game, especially since the NFL regular season doesn't start for another week.

Prediction: The Aggies have too much firepower and I'll take them by 25.